this short-time frame horizon is new and i think people who think we are going to have tax reform and entitlement reform next year are way, way off base. >> cutting short his vacation but it's unclear whether he has the power to force a last minute solution through a deeply divided congress. >> darren gersh. >> so, joe, how bad could that be? >> i had, susie. unfortunately, the economy has been gaining momentum, if you look at the labor market as well as housing making progress. but if we would see a fall from the fiscal cliff, it's not in our own estimates that those in the congressional budget office would be enough to impart a recession in the first half of 2013. i think still there's a 51% chance, if you ask me, that we avert the cliff but those are uncomfortablably low chances of success. >> we have seen some progress in the economy, in the housing sector, in the auto sector, in the job market. if we do go over the cliff, what happens to the progress that has been made in those sectors? and consumer spending spending d confidence as well? >> well, what i would most likely anticip